Monday, February 12, 2007
Duckworth-Lewis under scanner
After I got over the disbelief of England's 2-0 win over Australia in the finals, what got me interested was the declared margin of England's win. As per the D/L formula, England was declared victors by a margin of 34 runs.
Now, letz look at the context. England bats first, makes 246 in 50 overs. Aus chases and when rain curtails play, had made 152 runs in 27 overs loosing 8 wickets. A declared winning margin of 34 runs means, if Australia had made 187 runs in 27 overs at the loss of 8 wickets, they would have been declared winners. But then, in an uncurtailed match, Australia would have still needed 60 runs in 23 overs with just 2 wickets in hand! Now, if I were to bet on who would win, I would definitely not choose Aus!
So, does the Duckworth-Lewis system give more credit to tail-enders than what they deserve? Does it calculate that the tail can wag more than what history has shown?
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